Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5825
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 5825 · MKE → LGA
departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 9:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 36%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.09 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.