Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 5827 · IND → DTW
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 6:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.