YX 5829 · BOS → EWR

departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±6 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from BOS are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5829 · BOS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?