YX 5842 · DTW → PIT

departs 8:33 AM ET · arrives 9:51 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ 8am departures from DTW are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

PIT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5842 · DTW → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?