YX 5847 · DTW → GRR

departs 6:02 PM ET · arrives 7:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

GRR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5847 · DTW → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?