YX 5847 · GRR → DTW

departs 7:37 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.54 in

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5847 · GRR → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?