YX 5847 · GRR → DTW

departs 7:37 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.27 in

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5847 · GRR → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?