Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5848
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 5848 · LGA → JAX
departs 8:10 AM ET · arrives 10:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 13%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.