YX 5850 · MSN → LGA

departs 3:35 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from MSN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.26 in

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5850 · MSN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?