Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 5851 · BOS → BWI
departs 8:35 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 9/30 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 13%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.