Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Thursday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5854 SCHEDULED

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

YX 5854 · BOS → LGA

departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from BOS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5854 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?