YX 5859 · CMH → DTW

departs 12:04 PM ET · arrives 1:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ 12pm departures from CMH are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5859 · CMH → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?