YX 5862 · CMH → LGA

departs 10:57 AM ET · arrives 12:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5862 · CMH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?