Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1022 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1022 · PHX → LAS

departs 6:04 PM MT · arrives 7:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1022 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?