Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1118 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 1118 · LAX → MCO

departs 9:55 PM PT · arrives 5:56 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1118 · LAX → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?