Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1148 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 1148 · PHX → ORD

departs 12:50 AM MT · arrives 6:25 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8.4 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1148 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?