Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1223 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 1223 · DFW → FAT

departs 5:21 PM CT · arrives 6:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±5 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip2.13 in

FAT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1223 · DFW → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?