tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1409 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday

AA 1409 · JFK → AUS

departs 12:26 PM ET · arrives 3:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 3.6d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to AUS?

  1. On time or early
    74%
  2. 15–30 min late
    11%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    3%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    4%
  6. Cancelled
    1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.