Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1423 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1423 · AUS → PHL

departs 1:52 PM CT · arrives 6:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.08 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1423 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?