Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1429 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1429 · DFW → AVL

departs 1:23 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

AVL (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1429 · DFW → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?