Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1430 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1430 · DFW → SFO

departs 7:28 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±10 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1430 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?