Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1437 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1437 · ORD → LAX

departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 7:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1437 · ORD → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?