Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1465 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 1465 · ORD → LAS

departs 8:59 PM CT · arrives 10:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±8 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1465 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?