Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1475 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1475 · BNA → DFW

departs 3:31 PM CT · arrives 5:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1475 · BNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?