Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1524 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1524 · PHL → SFO

departs 8:28 AM ET · arrives 11:29 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1524 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?