Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1621 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1621 · PHL → SAN

departs 8:39 AM ET · arrives 11:20 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1621 · PHL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?