Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1625 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:47 PM MT, ETA 9:06 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1625 · PHX → PDX

took off 6:47 PM MT · expected to land 9:06 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1625 · PHX → PDX

Odds over time