Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1639 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1639 · BZN → ORD

departs 5:03 PM MT · arrives 9:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1639 · BZN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?