Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1648 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1648 · DFW → PHX

departs 5:55 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1648 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?