Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1715 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 1715 · ORD → AUS

departs 7:16 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

AUS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1715 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?