Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1751 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 1751 · DEN → PHL

departs 12:49 PM MT · arrives 6:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1751 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?