Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1761 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 1761 · DFW → PIT

departs 8:08 PM CT · arrives 11:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±1 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

PIT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1761 · DFW → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?