Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1847 LANDED 12:02 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AA 1847 · DFW → FLL

took off 8:42 PM CT · landed 12:02 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1847 · DFW → FLL

Odds over time