Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1864 LANDED 11:36 PM ET, ~75 MIN LATE

Friday, October 2

AA 1864 · PHL → FLL

took off 9:23 PM ET · landed 11:36 PM ET (scheduled 7:20 PM ET → 10:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FLL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1864 · PHL → FLL

Odds over time

How late did it get to FLL?