Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2016 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2016 · ORD → LAS

departs 10:26 AM CT · arrives 12:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,667 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.39 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2016 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?