Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2039 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2039 · LAS → LAX

departs 2:36 PM PT · arrives 3:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±8 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2039 · LAS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?