Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2191 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2191 · MSY → PHX

departs 6:14 PM CT · arrives 7:29 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2191 · MSY → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?