Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2197 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2197 · PHL → LAX

departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±7 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2197 · PHL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?