Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2209 · DFW → IAH

departs 9:10 PM CT · arrives 10:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

IAH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2209 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?