Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2439 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 2439 · PHL → RSW

departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 1:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

RSW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2439 · PHL → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?