Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2469 · DFW → MDT

departs 6:48 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDT?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MDT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.57 in

MDT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2469 · DFW → MDT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDT?