Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2497 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2497 · PHX → SAT

departs 12:30 PM MT · arrives 4:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2497 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?