Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 2515 · PHX → SBA

departs 5:02 PM MT · arrives 6:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SBA that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2515 · PHX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?