Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2535 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2535 · SAN → DFW

departs 6:20 AM PT · arrives 11:35 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
26%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SAN that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SAN are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2535 · SAN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?