Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2549 LANDED 11:14 PM ET, ~9 MIN EARLY

Friday, October 2

AA 2549 · ORD → EWR

took off 8:48 PM CT · landed 11:14 PM ET (scheduled 8:09 PM CT → 11:30 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

EWR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2549 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?