Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2550 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2550 · SFO → ORD

departs 2:36 PM PT · arrives 9:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 51% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2550 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?