Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2663 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2663 · PHL → SFO

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 8:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±5 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2663 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?