Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 274 · LAX → JFK

departs 11:55 AM PT · arrives 8:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 274 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?