Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2805 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2805 · LGA → TPA

departs 8:26 AM ET · arrives 11:21 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2805 · LGA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?