Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2810 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2810 · DFW → SFO

departs 4:17 PM CT · arrives 5:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±8 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.13 in

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2810 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?