Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2814 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2814 · DFW → TPA

departs 7:10 AM CT · arrives 10:41 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −26 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2814 · DFW → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?